The New York City Department of Health is releasing COVID-19 coronavirus testing data by zip code daily on GitHub, the repository of data and code for nerds. Untapped New York contributor Ben Huff, who is a Master of Science graduate in Urban Planning from Columbia University Graduate School of Architecture, Planning, and Preservation (GSAPP), created this interactive map using that data for us by layering the zip code shape file from NYC Open Data with the DOH data. This map and article will be updated regularly with new data released by New York City Department of Health (the first article we published with the map and data was on 4/2/20, the new map above is from the data released on 4/5/20).
Using this map, you can see the comparative number of cases by zip code, with lighter colors having fewer cases and darker colors more. Click on a zip code area, and you get a pop-up that shows the number of tests, the number of positive cases, net new cases since 4/1, and % of total population.
Some notes: Williamsburg zip code 11249 is still missing from the Github data file, so it only looks like it has few cases. The data is also limited by access to testing by zip code — areas may have more cases because more people can be tested, but may not mean there are actually more cases. Until widespread testing is available and the data set is complete following the crisis, the true picture of what is happening by neighborhood cannot be assessed. And even at that point, we may never know the full number of cases.
Here is a Department of Health map from March 31st showing percentage of patients testing positive by zip code (which does show Williamsburg). The zip code unknown percentage at 89% seems like a red flag however.
Source: NYC Department of Health
We would also have to do further analysis using socioeconomic data to determine whether there is a true correlation between income and coronavirus incidence (as well as mapping per capita), but at first glance you are seeing higher number of cases in the far outer boroughs. In The New York Times‘ own analysis of the same data, they write, “many of the neighborhoods with the most confirmed virus cases were in areas with the lowest median incomes, the data shows.”
Ben Wellington, Visiting Assistant Professor in the City and Regional Planning program at the Pratt Institute, a quantitative analyst, and the founder of the website I Quant NY, goes deeper using regression analysis of the data on April 2nd. He writes, “positive testing rates, given the disparities in testing, is likely not a good proxy for the rate of infection when comparing across income lines.”
Here is our map of the data from the April 2nd dataset:
Wellington had previously mapped the ridership drop in the subway on March 18th, which he found to be far less extreme in less affluent neighborhoods where the population may have less ability to work from home. He wrote, “What’s troubling is that this may mean an additional health burden on those who may have less access to quality healthcare and are less likely to have paid sick time (or a security blanket for lost income). The health risks of keeping the subway open are not evenly distributed among income groups.”
To look deeper at the possible correlation with income, Wellington looked at data from symptom surveillance data also from NYC Department of Health that shows symptom counts from emergency room visits. He writes, “A quick analysis seems to confirm that there is a relationship between median income in a Zip Code and the ER visit rate for respiratory symptoms…And here is the striking thing – it turns out there is no mathematical correlation between hospitalization rates and positive test rates, adding the evidence that positive test rates is not a great proxy for understanding the spread.”
We have made this map from open source data and produced it in a form that is embeddable you can use this code below. Please just give credit to Ben Huff/Untapped New York:
Michelle is the founder of Untapped New York and the author of The Art Spy (HarperOne, forthcoming) Secret Brooklyn, Secret New York Hidden Bars & Restaurants, and Broadway. michelleyoungwriter.com
